whenever there is structural instability in factor loadings. For empirical applications, we consider forecasting economic …

Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate … forecasting. In addition, we adopt a driftless random walk prior, so that cross-dynamics matter for forecasting only if there is …

predictive accuracy in now-casting and forecasting. Our empirical results show that both the monthly version of the DSGE and the …

the most relevant recent developments in this field of economic forecasting. To begin with, we analyze the problem of … resulting leading indicator based forecasts, and review the recent literature on the forecasting performance of leading …

The accession of ten countries into the European Union makes the forecasting of their key macroeconomic indicators an …, suggesting the adoption of simple time series models as forecasting tools. However, despite this constraint on the span of data … models a reasonable alternative forecasting tool. The relative performance of these two forecasting approaches is compared by …

This paper considers Bayesian regression with normal and doubleexponential priors as forecasting methods based on large …