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We model the United States macroeconomic and financial sectors using a formal and unified econometric model. Through shrinkage, our Bayesian VAR provides a flexible framework for modeling the dynamics of thirty-one variables, many of which are tracked by the Federal Reserve. We show how the...
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predictive accuracy in now-casting and forecasting. Our empirical results show that both the monthly version of the DSGE and the …
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-run predictions of a wide class of theoretical models yields substantial improvements in the forecasting performance. …
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