This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on output and inflation as new releases of data … larger than that of the Employment Report. When we control for timeliness of the releases, the effect of hard data becomes … sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation, while GDP is affected only by real …

We study the conditional distribution of GDP growth as a function of economic and financial conditions. Deteriorating … financial conditions are associated with an increase in the conditional volatility and a decline in the conditional mean of GDP … growth, leading the lower quantiles of GDP growth to vary with financial conditions and the upper quantiles to be stable over …

their cross-correlations. Member countries which had similar levels of GDP per-capita in the seventies have also experienced … per-capita GDP growth since 1999 has been lower than what could have been predicted on the basis of historical experience … and US observed developments. The gap between US and euro area GDP per capita level has been 30% on average since 1970 and …

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on output and inʿation as new releases of data … larger than that of the Employment Report. When we control for timeliness of the releases, the effect of hard data becomes … sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inʿation while GDP is only affected by real variables …