Forecasting current quarter GDP is a permanent task inside the central banks. Many models are known and proposed to solve this problem. Thanks to new results on the asymptotic normality of the multivariate k-nearest neighbor regression estimate, we propose an interesting and new approach to...

Business surveys are an important element in the analysis of the short-term economic situation because of the timeliness and nature of the information they convey. Especially, surveys are often involved in econometric models in order to provide an early assessment of the current state of the...

Using a dynamic multivariate system, where variables are aligned in order to reflect data availability at the time when agents form their expectations, we show that survey expectations contain relevant information about business cycle developments in the euro area.

This paper discusses the macroeconomics of NFA at the Euro Area level, making use of the cointegrated VAR methodology. The wish to contribute to the literature on EMU motivates the choice of the topic; the non-stationarity of the data explains the choice of the methodology. The main conclusion of...