This paper examines financial professionals' overconfidence in their forecasting performance. We are the first to compare individual financial professionals' self-ratings with their true forecasting performance. Data spans several years at monthly frequency. The forecasters in our sample do not...

This study examines foreign exchange intervention based on novel daily data covering 33 countries from 1995 to 2011. We find that intervention is widely used and a highly effective policy tool, with a success rate in excess of 80 percent under some criteria. The policy works very well in terms...

Die Eurozone ist vor allem durch die gefährdete Kreditwürdigkeit Griechenlands in eine schwere Krise geraten. Jetzt zeigt sich, dass jede Währungsunion ein Konstruktionsproblem hat. Die Mitgliedstaaten müssen auf die Autonomie in der Geldpolitik verzichten und ohne die Instrumente der Geld-...

This study examines foreign exchange intervention based on novel daily data covering 33 countries from 1995 to 2011. We find that intervention is widely used and an effective policy tool, with a success rate in excess of 80 percent under some criteria. The policy works well in terms of smoothing...