Alfred Cowles' (1934) test of the Dow Theory apparently provided strong evidence against the ability of Wall Street's most famous chartist to forecast the stock market. In this paper, we review Cowles' evidence and find that it supports the contrary conclusion -- that the Dow Theory, as applied...

Using a sample of daily net flows to nearly 1,000 U.S. mutual funds over a year and a half period, we identify a set of systematic factors that explain a significant amount of the variation in flows. This suggests the existence of a common component to mutual fund investor behavior and indicates...

Home ownership increases the incentive to maintain property and neighborhood, as well as decreasing the outflow of rents from low-income zones. However, these benefits are not costless to homeowners. With a mortgage comes the possibility of default, the financial demands of maintenance, a...

The correlations among international real estate markets are surprisingly high, given the degree to which they are segmented. While industrial, office and retail properties exist all around the world, they are not economic substitutes because of locational specificity. In addition, the broad...

This paper examines the contribution of Leonardo of Pisa [Fibonacci] to the history of financial mathematics. Evidence in Leonardo's Liber Abaci (1202) suggests that he was the first to develop present value analysis for comparing the economic value of alternative contractual cash flows. He also...

This paper examines governance explanations for the discount of preferred shares to common shares in th

We find evidence that is consistent with the hypothesis that daily mutual fund flows may be instruments for investor sentiment about the stock market. We use this finding to construct a new index of investor sentiment, and validate this index using data from both the United States and Japan. In...

Recent empirical evidence has suggested that the Japanese mutual fund industry has underperformed dramatically in the past two decades. Conjectured reasons for under performance range from tax

This paper examines the effect of seller reserves on market index construction. It reports the results of simulations in which transactions are conditioned upon various reservation strategies. Indices constructed by averaging across observed conditional prices each period differ dramatically...

History demonstrates that global capital markets can contract as well as expand. A long-term view of finance suggests that we should prepare for periodic segmentation as well as integration of markets in the 21st Century. Anti-capitalist ideologies have historically been the vectors of attack on...