The aim of this paper is to provide econometric tools to analyse and forecast inflation dynamics in the Euro area, starting from a small-scale cointegrated VAR system. In order to supply information on the long-run inflation trend, a forward-looking quot;corequot; inflation measure is...

Using a common trends model, we estimate a forward-looking core inflation measure for the Euro area based on long-run relations among major macroeconomic variables, bearing the interpretation of long-run inflation forecast. The proposed measure may be particularly suitable for the two-pillar...

Using a common trends model, a forward-looking 'core' inflation measure is estimated for the Euro area based on long-run relations among major macroeconomic variables, bearing the interpretation of long-run inflation forecast. The proposed measure may be particularly suitable for the...