Predictive regressions are linear specifications linking a noisy variable such as stock returns to past values of a more persistent regressor such as valuation ratios, interest rates etc with the aim of assessing the presence or absence of predictability. Key complications that arise when...

This paper proposes nonparametric consistent tests of conditional stochastic dominance of arbitrary order in a dynamic setting. The novelty of these tests resides on the nonparametric manner of incorporating the information set into the test. The test allows for general forms of unknown serial...

While co-integration theory is an ideal framework to study linear relationships among persistent economic time series, the intrinsic linearity in the concepts of integration and co-integration makes it unsuitable to study non-linear long run relations among persistent processes. This drawback...

We empirically investigate the short-run impact of anticipated and unanticipated unemployment rates on stock prices. We particularly examine the nonlinearity in stock market’s reaction to unemployment rate and study the effect at each individual point (quantile) of stock return distribution....

We empirically investigate the short-run impact of anticipated and unanticipated unemployment rates on stock prices. We particularly examine the nonlinearity in stock market's reaction to unemployment rate and study the effect at each individual point (quantile) of stock return distribution....

Time invariance of factor loadings is a standard assumption in the analysis of large factor models. Yet, this assumption may be restrictive unless parameter shifts are mild (i.e., local to zero). In this paper we develop a new testing procedure to detect big breaks in these loadings at either...

In moments of financial distress downside risk measures like lower partial moments are more appropriate than the standard variance to characterize risk. The goal of this paper is to study how to choose optimal portfolios in these periods. In order to do this we extend the definition of lower...

This paper analyses the power properties, under fixed alternatives, of a Wald-type test, i.e., the (Efficient) Fractional Dickey-Fuller (EFDF) test of I(1) against I(d), d1, relative to LM tests. Further, it extends the implementation of the EFDF test to the presence of deterministic trending...

This paper analyses how to test I(1) against I(d), d1, in the presence of deterministic components in the DGP, by extending a Wald-type test, i.e., the (Efficient) Fractional Dickey-Fuller (EFDF) test, to this case. Tests of these hypotheses are important in many economic applications where it...