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This study uses quantile regressions to estimate historical forecast error distributions forWASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices, and then compute confidencelimits for the forecasts based on the empirical distributions. Quantile regressions with fiterrors expressed as a function of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009443736
This study uses quantile regressions to estimate historical forecast error distributions for WASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices, and then compute confidence limits for the forecasts based on the empirical distributions. Quantile regressions with fit errors expressed as a function...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008802890
marketing performance of wheat farmers in Illinois and Kansas is about equal to the market if a 24- or 20-month market benchmark … harvest benchmark is used. The sensitivity of marketing performance to the market benchmark considered is explained by the …The purpose of this paper is to analyze the marketing performance of wheat farmers in Illinois and Kansas over 1982â …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005041379
economically valuable information to livestock market participants. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009442967
While the risk premium hypothesis in futures markets has been the subject of a long and continuous controversy, the risk premium hypothesis in forward markets is also of interest among economists. The hypothesis is supported by some theoretical arguments and empirical evidence yet remains an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009442969
This paper employs a Bayesian hierarchical approach to estimate individual expected performance of market advisory … based on the efficient market hypothesis. The third divides programs into two groups based on the degree of activeness in … marketing recommendations. Results indicate that even when skeptical beliefs are incorporated into the model a few programs in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009442981
-trivial decrease. Hence, it can be concluded that USDA outlook information reduces the uncertainty of market participants' expected … distribution of future prices. This reduction in market uncertainty is unambiguously welfare-enhancing. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009442999
The purpose of this research bulletin is to summarize the pricing performance of professional market advisory services …. First, advisory programs in corn do not consistently beat market benchmarks, but they do consistently beat the farmer … benchmark. Second, advisory programs in soybeans tend to beat both market and farmer benchmarks. Third, in terms of 50 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009444395
The purpose of this paper is to address two basic performance questions for market advisory services: 1) Do market … advisory services, on average, outperform an appropriate market benchmark? and 2) Do market advisory services exhibit … by the AgMAS Project, are available for the 1995, 1996 and 1997 marketing years. Performance test results suggest that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009444396
.04 below the market benchmark price. The range of net advisory prices is substantial, with a minimum of $2.18 per bushel and a … the market benchmark revenue. The spread in advisory revenue also is noteworthy, with the difference between the bottom … wheat outperforms the market benchmark when both price and risk are considered, while many have a lower price and higher …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009444397