We explain changes in the Canadian target rate using macroeconomic variables and Bank of Canada (BOC) communication indicators. Econometrically, we employ an ordered probit model of a Taylor rule to predict 60 target rate decisions between 1998 and 2006. We find that BOC communication is...

Monetary policy decisions are typically taken after a committee has deliberated and voted on a proposal. However, there are well-known risks associated with committee-based decisions. In this paper we examine the record of the shadow Monetary Policy Council in Canada. Given the structure of the...

This paper examines the policy rate recommendations of the Bank of Canada's Governing Council (GC) and the C.D. Howe Institute's Monetary Policy Council (MPC) since 2003. We find, first, that differences in the median recommendations between the MPC and the GC are persistent but small (i.e., 25...

Using a GARCH model, we study the effects of Canadian and U.S. central bank communication and macroeconomic news on Canadian bond, stock, and foreign exchange market returns and volatility. First, news in both categories and from both countries has an impact on all financial markets. Canadian...

We examine the impact of Bank of Canada communications and media reporting on them on Canadian (short- and medium-term) bond and stock market returns using a GARCH model. Communications are rather uniformly distributed over the sample period (1998–2006); however, media coverage is particularly...

We study the correlation between pairs of bond and stock markets in Canada and the United States between January 1998 and December 2006 in the framework of Diagonal-BEKK models. Our research question is whether monetary policy action and communication by the Bank of Canada and the Federal...