We use Bayesian time-varying parameters VARs with stochastic volatility to investigate changes in the marginal predictive content of the yield spread for output growth in the United States and the United Kingdom, since the Gold Standard era, and in the Eurozone, Canada, and Australia over the...

A Monetary Conditions Index (MCI), a weighted average of the short-term real interest rate and the real exchange rate, is a commonly used indicator of aggregate demand conditions. In-sample evidence for the US, the euro area, Japan and the UK suggests that a Financial Conditions Index (FCI),...

Central Bankers are currently facing big challenges in designing and implementing monetary policy, as well as with safeguarding financial stability, with the world economy still in the process of digesting the legacy of the crisis. The crisis has changed central banking in many ways: by shifting...