We study the implications of incarceration for the earnings and employment of different groups, characterized by their race, gender, and education. Our hidden Markov model distinguishes between first-time and repeat incarceration, along with other persistent and transitory nonemployment and...

The authors forecast the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on loan delinquency rates under three scenarios for unemployment and house price movements. In the baseline scenario, their model predicts that loan delinquency rises from 2.3 percent in 2019 to a peak of 3.9 percent in 2025 with a total...