This paper reviews the usefulness of monetary conditions in the euro area as leading indicators for aggregate demand conditions. Monetary conditions are measured with the MCI concept proposed by the Bank of Canada, and with the yield spread. A central result is that causality runs in both ways...

Feedback from stock prices to cash flows occurs because information revealed by firms' stock prices influences the actions of competitors. We explore the implications of feedback within a noisy rational expectations setting with incumbent publicly traded firms and privately held new entrants. In...

Feedback from stock prices to cash flows occurs because information revealed by firms' stock prices influences the actions of competitors. We explore the implications of feedback within a noisy rational expectations setting with publicly listed and private firms. In our setting, stock prices are...

Feedback from stock prices to cash flows occurs because information revealed by firms' stock prices influences the actions of competitors. We explore the implications of feedback within a noisy rational expectations setting with incumbent publicly traded firms and privately held new entrants. In...

Preliminary univariate and multivariate regressions, visual inspections, various relative entropy probes, and complementary Pearson correlation tests and Welch’s t-tests all suggest that the copper-to-gold ratio often embeds credible information about the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. This...

Preliminary univariate and multivariate regressions, visual inspections, various relative entropy probes, and complementary Pearson correlation tests and Welch’s t-tests all suggest that the copper-to-gold ratio often embeds short termed credible information about the 10-year U.S. Treasury...