.S. presidential elections. The majority of respondents correctly predicted the election winner in 193 (89%) of 217 surveys conducted … provided more accurate forecasts of election winners and vote shares than four established methods (vote intention polls … election campaigns …

, political economy models, and index models to predict the two-party popular vote in the 2012 US presidential election …. Throughout the election year the PollyVote provided highly accurate forecasts, outperforming each of its component methods, as … uncertainty about the election outcome is typically high. The results confirm prior research showing that combining is one of the …

reduction in error obtained by averaging forecasts within and across four election forecasting methods: poll projections, expert …

forecasting to established election forecasting models.Usefulness. Election forecasters can substantially improve the accuracy of …