Both the theory and practice of energy modelling have made phenomenal advances over the last 20 years. After providing a brief description of the state of energy modelling circa 1970, this paper identifies four major methodological advances profoundly affecting energy modelling. In the area of...

In the wake of events associated with the Iranian revolution, the world price of oil increased from $15 to $32 per barrel. The Energy Modeling Forum's recent review of 10 world oil models shows virtual unanimity in holding that this price increase will be permanent and, indeed, that the real...

Predicting the demand for motor gasoline over the last ten years has proven a most frustrating experience. Up until 1973, industry analysts felt considerable assurance in applying historical growth rates that averaged approximately 5 percent per year. Who in 1973 would have predicted that...

The recent precipitous decline in world oil prices from $28 per barrel in November 1985 to $12 per barrel in March 1986 has perplexed most industry analysts and OPEC watchers. As oil prices continue to deteriorate, the central question now seems to be: "Is there a price floor below which oil...

The future of oil depends critically on the production decisions of OPEC, which in turn depend on a variety of factors internal and external to the cartel. This paper uses a simulation of the world oil market to compute the, payoff to OPEC members of alternative price and production profiles,...