This paper is concerned with time series forecasting in the presence of a large number of predictors. The results are of interest, for instance, in macroeconomic and financial forecasting where often many potential predictor variables are available. Most of the current forecast methods with many...

Several instance-based large-margin classi¯ers have recently been put forward in the literature: Support Hyperplanes, Nearest Convex Hull classifier, and Soft Nearest Neighbor. We examine those techniques from a common fit-versus-complexity framework and study the links be- tween them. Finally,...

Consider the classification task of assigning a test object to one of two or more possible groups, or classes. An intuitive way to proceed is to assign the object to that class, to which the distance is minimal. As a distance measure to a class, we propose here to use the distance to the convex...

Generalized linear modelling (GLM) is a versatile technique, which may be viewed as a generalization of well-known techniques such as least squares regression, analysis of variance, loglinear modelling, and logistic regression. In may applications, low-order interaction (such as bivariate...

Macroeconomic forecasting is not an easy task, in particular if future growth rates are forecasted in real time. This paper compares various methods to predict the growth rate of US Industrial Production (IP) and of the Composite Coincident Index (CCI) of the Conference Board, over the coming...

Forecasting with many predictors is of interest, for instance, in macroeconomics and finance. This paper compares two methods for dealing with many predictors, that is, principal component regression (PCR) and principal covariate regression (PCovR). The forecast performance of these methods is...

Various ways of extracting macroeconomic information from a data-rich environment are compared with the objective of forecasting yield curves using the Nelson-Siegel model. Five issues in factor extraction are addressed, namely, selection of a subset of the available information, incorporation...

In analysis of variance, there is usually little attention for interpreting the terms of the effects themselves, especially for interaction effects. One of the reasons is that the number of interaction-effect terms increases rapidly with the number of predictor variables and the number of...

A new classification method is proposed, called Support Hy- perplanes (SHs). To solve the binary classification task, SHs consider the set of all hyperplanes that do not make classification mistakes, referred to as semi-consistent hyperplanes. A test object is classified using that...

Multidimensional scaling (MDS) has established itself as a standard tool for statisticians and applied researchers. Its success is due to its simple and easily interpretable representation of potentially complex structural data. These data are typically embedded into a 2-dimensional map, where...