Social distancing restrictions, as measured by the Oxford stringency indicator, constitute the one variable that is most tightly correlated with the recession and recovery across EU member states.

We derive an analytic expression describing how health costs and death counts of the Covid-19 pandemic change over time as vaccination proceeds. Meanwhile, the disease may continue to spread exponentially unless checked by Non Pharmacological Interventions (NPI). The key factors are that the...

With European governments cutting back on spending, many are asking whether this could make matters worse. In the UK for instance, recent OECD estimates suggest that 'austerity' will lead to another recession, which in turn may lead to a higher debt-to-GDP ratio than before. As the debate heats...

The theme of this contribution is how Europe will evolve over the next decade. The key message is that over this decade Europe will be busy digesting the 12 members that joined in 2004 and 2007. Digesting in the context means that the new members will only gradually be incorporated and...

With disparities in national unemployment rates reaching record levels, the debate on fiscal stabilisers in Europe has gained new momentum. Can a European unemployment insurance scheme help to absorb asymmetric shocks and bring about the desired level of macroeconomic stabilisation? What should...

Vigorous debate over the effectiveness of the fiscal adjustment programmes for the crisis-stricken countries in the eurozone has grown quite polarised. In this Forum, several experts use analytical, evidence-based approaches to gauge the effectiveness of these programmes. The role played by the...

Die Bilanz des Europäischen Zentralbanksystems (EZBS) ist um 50% länger als notwendig, und da die europäischen Notenbanken ihre Bilanzen so undurchsichtig wie möglich gestalten, ist es schwer, genau festzustellen, woher die überflüssigen Positionen stammen. Daniel Gros, stellvertretender...

Die Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) ist Bestandteil des Regelwerks, das am 13. Dezember 2011 als sogenanntes "Sixpack" in Reaktion auf die europäische Finanz- und Schuldenkrise in Kraft trat. Die Krise hat gezeigt, dass interne und externe Ungleichgewichte eng miteinander verwoben sind....

Two of the four macroeconomic adjustment programmes, Portugal and Ireland s, can be considered a success in the sense that the initial expectations in terms of adjustment, both fiscal and external, were broadly fulfilled. A rebound based on exports has taken hold in these two countries, but a...