Substantial data revisions have shown that the U.S. recession in 2008 to 2009 was far more pronounced than originally estimated, and that the recovery has been slower than previously assumed. Leading indicators signal that growth will stay weak in the second half of 2011. With key interest rates...

Forecasting current quarter GDP is a permanent task inside the central banks. Many models are known and proposed to solve this problem. Thanks to new results on the asymptotic normality of the multivariate k-nearest neighbor regression estimate, we propose an interesting and new approach to...

The global slowdown appears to have come to an end during the summer of 2009. Most countries saw a smaller decline in economic activity in the second quarter, with some economies even recording positive growth rates once again. In the U.S.A., the economic contraction moderated in the second...

The economic recovery, which had started in Asia and then quickly spread to the U.S.A., recently lost momentum in both regions. In the second quarter of 2010, the U.S. economy recorded real GDP growth (in annualized terms) of a mere 1.7% quarter on quarter, following 3.7% in the first three...

Business surveys are an important element in the analysis of the short-term economic situation because of the timeliness and nature of the information they convey. Especially, surveys are often involved in econometric models in order to provide an early assessment of the current state of the...