investment over an out-of-sample period from 1983:Q1 to 2011:Q2, based on an in-sample estimates for 1963:Q1 to 1982:Q4. Both …, as well as 20 bivariate regression models, capture the influence of fundamentals in forecasting residential investment … residential investment, via an ex-ante forecast exercise from 2011:Q3 to 2012:Q4. The SSVS-Large model forecasts the turning …

The Feldstein-Horioka (FH) puzzle, that is the strong correlation between saving and investment in a world where … further light on the issue by investigating the relationship between saving and investment in South Africa since 1946 using … cointegration between saving and investment, indicating some degree of persistence in the gap between the two variables. We also …

investment series over an out of sample period of 1983Q1 to 2011Q2, based on an in-sample of 1963Q1-1982Q4. Both large … investment. We evaluate the ex post out-of-sample forecast performance of the 26 models using the relative average Mean Square … investment, via an ex ante forecast exercise from 2011Q3 to 2012Q4. The SSVS-Large model forecasts the turning points more …

investment over an out-ofsample period from 1983:Q1 to 2011:Q2, based on an in-sample estimates for 1963:Q1 to 1982:Q4. Both …, as well as 20 bivariate regression models, capture the influence of fundamentals in forecasting residential investment … residential investment, via an ex-ante forecast exercise from 2011:Q3 to 2012:Q4. The SSVS-Large model forecasts the turning …

autoregressive (MF-MS-VAR) model, and compare its in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting performances to those of a Markov …-switching vector autoregressive model (MS-VAR, where the EPU is averaged over the months to produce quarterly values) and a Markov …-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model. Their results show that the MF-MS-VAR fits the different recession regimes, and provides out …

-switching vector autoregressive model (MS-VAR, where the EPU is averaged over the months to produce quarterly values) and a Markov …-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model. The results show that the MF-MS-VAR fits the different recession regimes, and provides out …-of-sample forecasts of recession probabilities which are more accurate than those derived from the MS-VAR and MS-AR models. The results …

factors since around 1990. We then use a Bayesian change-point vector autoregressive (VAR) model, that allows for different …

to be identified in a six-variable VAR model by imposing sign restrictions on the impulse responses of consumer prices …, residential investment, real house prices and mortgage loans, while private consumption and nominal interest rate responses are …