investment over an out-of-sample period from 1983:Q1 to 2011:Q2, based on an in-sample estimates for 1963:Q1 to 1982:Q4. Both …, as well as 20 bivariate regression models, capture the influence of fundamentals in forecasting residential investment … residential investment, via an ex-ante forecast exercise from 2011:Q3 to 2012:Q4. The SSVS-Large model forecasts the turning …

investment over an out-ofsample period from 1983:Q1 to 2011:Q2, based on an in-sample estimates for 1963:Q1 to 1982:Q4. Both …, as well as 20 bivariate regression models, capture the influence of fundamentals in forecasting residential investment … residential investment, via an ex-ante forecast exercise from 2011:Q3 to 2012:Q4. The SSVS-Large model forecasts the turning …

The Feldstein-Horioka (FH) puzzle, that is the strong correlation between saving and investment in a world where … further light on the issue by investigating the relationship between saving and investment in South Africa since 1946 using … cointegration between saving and investment, indicating some degree of persistence in the gap between the two variables. We also …

investment series over an out of sample period of 1983Q1 to 2011Q2, based on an in-sample of 1963Q1-1982Q4. Both large … investment. We evaluate the ex post out-of-sample forecast performance of the 26 models using the relative average Mean Square … investment, via an ex ante forecast exercise from 2011Q3 to 2012Q4. The SSVS-Large model forecasts the turning points more …

-switching vector autoregressive model (MS-VAR, where the EPU is averaged over the months to produce quarterly values) and a Markov …-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model. The results show that the MF-MS-VAR fits the different recession regimes, and provides out …-of-sample forecasts of recession probabilities which are more accurate than those derived from the MS-VAR and MS-AR models. The results …

factors since around 1990. We then use a Bayesian change-point vector autoregressive (VAR) model, that allows for different …

autoregressive (MF-MS-VAR) model, and compare its in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting performances to those of a Markov …-switching vector autoregressive model (MS-VAR, where the EPU is averaged over the months to produce quarterly values) and a Markov …-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model. Their results show that the MF-MS-VAR fits the different recession regimes, and provides out …

autoregressive (MS-VAR) model and data for the period 1960Q2 to 2013Q3, we found the oil price to have predictive content for real …