regimes at unknown points of time. We find that the Great Recession also altered the persistence of the unemployment rate …This paper explores the mean-reverting behavior of the unemployment rate using monthly geographically disaggregated … exhibit stationarity around a shifting mean. For these series, we find that the break occurs at the Great Recession. To …

-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model. Their results show that the MF-MS-VAR fits the different recession regimes, and provides out …-of-sample forecasts of recession probabilities which are more accurate than those derived from the MS-VAR and MS-AR models. The results …

-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model. The results show that the MF-MS-VAR fits the different recession regimes, and provides out …-of-sample forecasts of recession probabilities which are more accurate than those derived from the MS-VAR and MS-AR models. The results …