This study analyzes price and volatility transmissions between nineteen real estate investment trusts (REITs) markets and the oil market. The REITs data represents a variety of countries at different stages of their development and the expanded analytical approach includes accounting for...

This paper examines intentional herding among institutional investors with a particular focus on the technology sector that was the driver of the “New Economy” in the United States during the dot-com bubble of the 1990s. Using data on technology stockholdings of 115 large institutional...

We use a time-varying parameter dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility (DFM-TV-SV) estimated using Bayesian methods to disentangle the relative importance of the common component in FHFA house price movements from state-specific shocks, over the quarterly period of 1975Q2 to 2017Q4. We...

We employ a 10-variable dynamic structural general equilibrium model to forecast the US real house price index as well as its turning point in 2006:Q2. We also examine various Bayesian and classical time-series models in our forecasting exercise to compare to the dynamic stochastic general...

We implement several Bayesian and classical models to forecast housing prices in 20 US states. In addition to standard vector-autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models, we also include the information content of 308 additional quarterly series in some models. Several...

This paper provides out-of-sample forecasts of Nevada gross gaming revenue and taxable sales using a battery of linear and non-linear forecasting models and univariate and multivariate techniques. The linear models include vector autoregressive and vector error-correction models with and without...

We implement several Bayesian and classical models to forecast employment for eight sectors of the US economy. In addition to standard vector-autoregressive and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, we also include the information content of 143 additional monthly series in some models. Several...

This paper considers how monetary policy, a Federal funds rate shock, affects the dynamics of the US housing sector and whether the financial market liberalization of the early 1980's influenced those dynamics. The analysis uses impulse response functions obtained from a large-scale Bayesian...

This paper examines the causal relationships between the real house price index and real GDP per capita in the U.S., using the bootstrap Granger (temporal) non-causality test and a fixed-size rolling-window estimation approach. We use quarterly time-series data on the real house price index and...

The 2006 sudden and immense downturn in U.S. House Prices sparked the 2007 global financial crisis and revived the interest about forecasting such imminent threats for economic stability. In this paper we propose a novel hybrid forecasting methodology that combines the Ensemble Empirical Mode...