We examine the predictive value of expected skewness of oil returns for the realized volatility using monthly data from … structural breaks. In-sample results show that the predictive impact of expected skewness on realized volatility can be both … positive and negative, with these signs contingent on the quantiles of realized volatility. Moreover, we detected statistically …

heteroscedasticity (GARCH)-type models to forecast oil price volatility over the time periods from January 02, 1875 to December 31, 1895 … indicate that none of our volatility models can uniformly outperform other models across all six different loss functions …