This paper considers the role of the real housing price in the Great Depression. More specifically, we examine structural stability of the relationship between the real housing price and real GDP per capita. We test for structural change in parameter values, using a sample of annual US data from...

This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MS-VAR) model, and compare its in-sample and...

This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MSVAR) model, and compare its in-sample and...

We study the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) shocks on the long-run stock market variances and correlations, primarily for the US and the UK. We find that US EPU shocks affect both US and UK stock market long-run variances and correlation, but UK EPU shocks only affect its own...