Evidence in favour of the monetary model of exchange rate determination for the South African Rand is at best mixed. A co-integrating relationship between the nominal exchange rate and fundamentals forms the basis of the monetary model. With the econometric literature suggesting that it is the...

This paper investigates the effect of oil rents on agriculture value added in oil producing Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries. Annual data from 1970 to 2011, panel cointegration tests by Pedroni (1999), long ran panel causality tests by Canning and Pedroni (2008), and two-step...

This paper analyses the out-of-sample forecasting performance of non-linear vs. linear models for the South African Rand against the United States dollar and the British Pound, in real terms. We compare the forecasting performance of point, interval and density forecasts for non-linear Band- TAR...

This paper analyses the out-of-sample forecasting performance of non-linear vs. linear models for the South African rand against the United States dollar and the British pound, in real terms. We compare the forecasting performance of point, interval and density forecasts for non-linear Band-TAR...

This paper investigates the effect of oil rents on agriculture value added in oil producing Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. Annual data from 1970 to 2011, panel cointegration tests by Pedroni (1999), long ran panel causality tests by Canning and Pedroni (2008), and two-step...

Empirical evidence on the whether the inflation-targeting South African Reserve Bank (SARB) should also consider responding to exchange rate fluctuations, are contradictory. Against this backdrop of contradictory evidence, we revisit the issue by questioning if the inflation rate is more...

This paper examines the predictive power of time-varying risk aversion over payoffs to the carry trade strategy via the cross-quantilogram methodology. Our analysis yields significant evidence of directional predictability from risk aversion to daily carry trade returns tracked by the Deutsche...

This paper attempts to provide evidence indicating that the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) puzzle is becoming less of a puzzle. It present the results of Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, nonlinear tests of nonstationarity, and Bayesian unit root tests, applied to ten SADC countries. The...