Showing 1 - 10 of 321
This paper explores the mean-reverting behavior of the unemployment rate using monthly geographically disaggregated … regimes at unknown points of time. We find that the Great Recession also altered the persistence of the unemployment rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012857002
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011737672
In this paper we test the forecasting ability of three estimated financial conditions indices (FCIs) with respect to key macroeconomic variables of output growth, inflation and interest rates. We do this by forecasting the aforementioned macroeconomic variables based on the information contained...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011220717
demand shock in a six-variable VAR model by imposing sign restrictions on the impulse responses of consumer prices … left unrestricted. The results suggest that consumption responds positively and significantly to a house price shock in … follows a house price shock in Germany, Japan, the UK and the US, suggesting that while central banks do not seem to respond …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009323420
This paper investigates the existence of spillovers from stock prices onto consumption and the interest rate for South Africa using a time-varying vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility. In this regard, we estimate a three-variable TVP-VAR model comprising of real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010658702
The negative consequences of financial instability for the world economy during the recent financial crisis have highlighted the need for a better understanding of financial conditions. We use a financial conditions index (FCI) for South Africa previously constructed from 16 financial variables...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011095448
house price shock over the entire sample, with the effect being stronger post financial liberalization. On the other hand, a … positive delayed response of nominal interest rate followed a house price shock, with the effect being weaker post financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010552942
eight OECD countries in a six-variable structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR). A housing demand shock is identified … latter allows a housing demand shock to be identified by imposing sign restrictions on the impulse responses of consumer … shock in Canada, France, Japan, Spain and, the UK. A significant positive delayed response of nominal interest rates follows …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010639468
The negative consequences of financial instability for the world economy during the recent financial crisis have highlighted the need for a better understanding of financial conditions. We use a financial conditions index (FCI) for South Africa previously constructed from 16 financial variables...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010891108
In this paper, we consider the forecasting power, both in- and out-of-sample, of 11 financial variables with respect to the growth rate of Indian industrial production over the monthly out-of-sample period of 2005:4-2011:4, using an in-sample of 1994:1-2005:3. The financial variables used are:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009404615