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This paper explores the mean-reverting behavior of the unemployment rate using monthly geographically disaggregated … regimes at unknown points of time. We find that the Great Recession also altered the persistence of the unemployment rate …
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This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MS-VAR) model, and compare its in-sample and...
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