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The Causal Relationship between Imports and Economic Growth in the Nine Provinces of South Africa: Evidence from Panel-Granger Causality Tests
Chang, Tsangyao; Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D.; Gupta, Rangan - Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and … - 2013
This paper examines the causal relationship between imports and growth in nine provinces of South Africa for the period 1996-2011, using panel causality analysis, which accounts for cross-section dependency and heterogeneity across regions. Our empirical results support unidirectional causality...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010674529
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The Causal Relationship between Exports and Economic Growth in the Nine Provinces of South Africa: Evidence from Panel-Granger Causality Tests
Chang, Tsangyao; Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D.; Gupta, Rangan - Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and … - 2013
This paper examines the causal relationship between exports and growth in nine provinces of South Africa for the period 1995-2011, using panel causality analysis, which accounts for cross-section dependency and heterogeneity across regions. Our empirical results support unidirectional causality...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010678237
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The role of economic policy uncertainty in predicting U.S. recessions: A mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive approach
Balcilar, Mehmet; Gupta, Rangan; Segnon, Mawuli - 2016
This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MSVAR) model, and compare its in-sample and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011443622
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Is there a national housing market bubble brewing in the United States?
Gupta, Rangan; Ma, Jun; Theodoridis, Konstantinos; … - 2020
detect three regimes corresponding to the periods of "Great Inflation", "Great Moderation", and the zero lower bound (ZLB …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012875998
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The role of economic policy uncertainty in predicting U.S. recessions: A mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive approach
Balcilar, Mehmet; Gupta, Rangan; Segnon, Mawuli - In: Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 10 (2016) 2016-27, pp. 1-20
This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MS-VAR) model, and compare its in-sample and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011555275
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The impact of oil price on South African GDP growth: A Bayesian Markov Switching-VAR analysis
Balcilar, Mehmet; Eyden, Reneé van; Uwilingiye, Josine; … - Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and … - 2014
One characteristic of many macroeconomic and financial time series is their asymmetric behaviour during different phases of a business cycle. Oil price shocks have been amongst those economic variables that have been identified in theoretical and empirical literature to predict the phases of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011096980
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Oil price uncertainty and manufacturing production
Aye, Goodness C.; Dadam, Vincent; Gupta, Rangan; Mamba, … - In: Energy Economics 43 (2014) C, pp. 41-47
Given the rapid rise and volatility of oil prices, the paper investigates the effect of oil price uncertainty on the South African manufacturing production using monthly observations covering the period 1974:02 to 2012:12. In addition, we quantify the responses of manufacturing production to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011100118
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Endogenous Fluctuations in an Endogenous Growth Model with Ination Targeting
Gupta, Rangan; Stander, Lardo - Institut de Préparation à l'Administration et à la … - 2014
This paper develops a monetary endogenous growth overlapping generations model characterized by production lags - specically lagged capital inputs - and an in ation targeting monetary authority, and analyses the growth dynamics that emerge from this framework. The growth process is endogenized...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011161641
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Time-Frequency Relationship between U.S. Output with Commodity and Asset Prices
Tiwari, Aviral K.; Albulescu, Claudiu T.; Gupta, Rangan - Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and … - 2015
. Finally, when controlling for the influence of the interest rate, inflation and other commodity and asset prices, co …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011267816
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Endogenous Fluctuations in an Endogenous Growth Model with Inflation Targeting
Gupta, Rangan; Stander, Lardo - Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and … - 2014
- specifically lagged capital inputs - and an inflation targeting monetary authority, and analyses the growth dynamics that emerge … around the high-growth equilibrium in the growth path where the monetary authority follows a high inflation targeting regime …. Conversely, when the monetary authority follows a low inflation targeting regime, oscillations do not occur around either the low …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011095439