VaR models are related to statistical forecast systems. Within that framework different forecast tasks including Value-at-Risk and shortfall are discussed and motivated. A backtesting method based on the shortfall is developed and applied to VaR forecasts of areal portfolio. The analysis shows...

The testing of a computing model for a stationary time series is a standard task in statistics. When a parametric approach is used to model the time series, the question of goodness-of-fit arises. In this paper, we employ the empirical likelihood for an a-mixing process and formulate a statistic...