Risk management technology applied to high dimensional portfolios needs simple and fast methods for calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR). The multivariate normal framework provides a simple off-the-shelf methodology but lacks the heavy tailed distributional properties that are observed in data. A...

Motivated by the conjectured existence of trends in the intensity of tropical storms, this paper proposes new inferential methodology to detect a trend in the annual pattern of environmental data. The new methodology can be applied to data which can be represented as annual curves which evolve...

As an asset is traded, its varying prices trace out an interesting time series. The price, at least in a general way, reflects some underlying value of the asset. For most basic assets, realistic models of value must involve many variables relating not only to the individual asset, but also to...

In this paper we propose a new bootstrap, or Monte-Carlo, approach to such problems. Traditional bootstrap methods in this context are based on fitting a process chosen from a wide but relatively conventional range of discrete time series models, including autoregressions, moving averages,...

Deribit exchange offers about 90\% open interest in the recent cryptocurrency options market. The dominating type of options listed in Deribit is the inverse BTC option, which is settled in BTC and thus allows professional traders to avoid frequent convert between cryptocurrency and fiat...

Bitcoin (BTC) has attracted a plethora of investors and professional traders and becomes an almost inevitable asset class in today's financial markets. Deribit, the largest exchange for crypto options, offers European-typed inverse options, which target to BTC in USD but have payoff denominated...

Risk attitude and perception is reflected in brain reactions during RPID experiments. Given the fMRI data, an important research question is how to detect risk related regions and to investigate the relation between risk preferences and brain activity. Conventional methods are often insensitive...

Decision making usually involves uncertainty and risk. Understanding which parts of the human brain are activated during decisions under risk and which neural processes underly (risky) investment decisions are important goals in neuroeconomics. Here, we reanalyze functional magnetic resonance...

In this paper bootstrap confidence bands are constructed for nonparametric quantile estimates of regression functions, where resampling is done from a suitably estimated empirical distribution function (edf) for residuals. It is known that the approximation error for the confidence band by the...

Based on the Lee-Carter (LC) model, the benchmark in population forecasting, a variety of extensions and modifications are proposed in this paper. We investigate one of the extensions, the Hyndman-Ullah (HU) method and apply it to Asian demographic data sets: China, Japan and Taiwan. It combines...