In the era of Basel II a powerful tool for bankruptcy prognosis is vital for banks. The tool must be precise but also easily adaptable to the bank's objections regarding the relation of false acceptances (Type I error) and false rejections (Type II error). We explore the suitability of Smooth...

In the era of Basel II a powerful tool for bankruptcy prognosis is vital for banks. The tool must be precise but also easily adaptable to the bank's objections regarding the relation of false acceptances (Type I error) and false rejections (Type II error). We explore the suitability of Smooth...

In this paper we propose a new measure for systemic risk: the Financial Risk Meter (FRM). This measure is based on the penalization parameter () of a linear quantile lasso regression. The FRM is calculated by taking the average of the penalization parameters over the 100 largest US publicly...

We propose a semiparametric measure to estimate systemic interconnectedness across financial institutions based on tail-driven spill-over effects in a ultra-high dimensional framework. Methodologically, we employ a variable selection technique in a time series setting in the context of a...

Weekly, quarterly and yearly risk measures are crucial for risk reporting according to Basel III and Solvency II. For the respective data frequencies, the authors show in a simulation and backtest study that available data series are not sufficient in order to estimate Value at Risk and Expected...