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Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) have experienced an extraordinary decline in inflation since the early 1970s. After peaking in 1974 at 17.3 percent, inflation in these economies declined to 3.5 percent in 2017. Despite a checkered history of managing inflation among many EMDEs,...
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Japan still suffers a deflationary hangover from the great episodic yen appreciations of the 1980s into the mid-1990s …. Money wages are still declining, and short-term interest rates remain trapped near zero. After Japan’s “lost decade” from … Europe and the United States have grown, and are growing, faster than in Japan. As the yen becomes weaker in real terms …
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This paper examines the drivers of fluctuations in global inflation, defined as a common factor across monthly headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation in G7 countries, over the past half-century. We estimate a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model where a wide range of shocks,...
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Global inflation has risen sharply from its lows in mid-2020, on rebounding global demand, supply bottlenecks, and soaring food and energy prices, especially since the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine. Markets expect inflation to peak in mid-2022 and then decline, but to remain elevated...
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