The electoral regression discontinuity (RD) design is popular because it provides an unbiased, design-based estimate of the incumbency advantage with few assumptions. However, as is well known, the RD estimate is "local": it only identifies the effect in hypothetical districts with an exactly...

The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a valuable tool for identifying electoral effects, but this design is only effective when relevant actors do not have precise control over election results. Several recent papers contend that such precise control is possible in large elections,...