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Frequently, seasonal and non-seasonal data (especially macro time series) are observed with noise. For instance, the time series can have irregular abrupt changes and interruptions following as a result of additive or temporary change outliers caused by external circumstances which are...
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The detection of additive outliers in integrated variables has attracted some attention recently, see e.g. Shin et al. (1996), Vogelsang (1999) and Perron and Rodriguez (2003). This paper serves several purposes. We prove the inconsistency of the test proposed by Vogelsang, we extend the tests...
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The prototypical Lee-Carter mortality model is characterized by a single common time factor that loads differently across age groups. In this paper, we propose a parametric factor model for the term structure of mortality where multiple factors are designed to influence the age groups...
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regime states as well as the possibility of fractional cointegration. The model is motivated by the dynamics of electricity …
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regime states as well as the possibility of fractional cointegration. The model is motivated by the dynamics of electricity … suggested model is shown to deliver forecasts that are more precise compared to competing models. -- Cointegration ; electricity …
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