We must infer what the future situation would be without our interference, and what changes will be wrought by our actions. Fortunately, or unfortunately, none of these processes is infallible, or indeed ever accurate and complete. Knight (1921)

We must infer what the future situation would be without our interference, and what changes will be wrought by our actions. Fortunately, or unfortunately, none of these processes is infallible, or indeed ever accurate and complete. Knight (1921)

This paper explores two perspectives on the rational expectations hypothesis. One perspective is that of economic agents in such a model, who form inferences about the future using probabilities implied by the model. The other is that of an econometrician who makes inferences about the...

We must infer what the future situation would be without our interference, and what changes will be wrought by our actions. Fortunately, or unfortunately, none of these processes is infallible, or indeed ever accurate and complete. Knight (1921)

"This paper illustrates how to use instrumental variables procedures to estimate the parameters of a linear rational expectations model. These procedures are appropriate when disturbances are serially correlated and the instrumental variables are not exogenous"--Federal Reserve Bank of...

"This paper shows how the cross-equation restrictions delivered by the hypothesis of rational expectations can serve to solve the aliasing identification problem. It is shown how the rational expectations restrictions uniquely identify the parameters of a continuous time model from statistics of...

"This paper shows how the cross-equation restrictions implied by dynamic rational expectations models can be used to resolve the aliasing identification problem. Using a continuous time, linear-quadratic optimization environment, this paper describes how the resulting restrictions are sufficient...