A forbidden zones theorem, mathematical approach and model are proposed in the present article. In particular, the approach supposes that people decide as if there were some biases of the expectations of measurement data. The article is motivated by the need of a theoretical support for the...

This short paper is devoted to two items: 1) An analysis of Prelec’s weighting function at the probability p = 1 is highlighted (this analysis was performed by R. Duncan Luce in two articles with Ragnar Steingrimsson and János Aczél and here is referred to as the “Luce problem”). 2) The...

A general forecasting correcting formula, as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts, is created. The formula provides new forecasting resources and new possibilities for expansion of forecasting including economic forecasting into the areas of municipal needs, middle-size and...

The report, that has been presented on the Third International Conference on Mathematical Modelling of Social and Economical Dynamics MMSED-2010, is devoted to applications of the modern achievements of probability theory to economics. The "four-fold-pattern" paradox is used as an example of...

The definition of an arrangement infringement has been given. Several characteristics of hurricanes as large-scale events and the objectives for the first stages of an insurance data analysis have been sketched out. Scale hypotheses, insurance and investment problems have been formulated. The...

In the main random-lottery incentive system of experiments, the choices of certain outcomes are stimulated by random, uncertain lotteries. This “certain-uncertain” inconsistency is quite evident, but only recently revealed. Because of this inconsistency, conclusions from a random-lottery...

An existence theorem for a bias of the mean in the presence of data dispersion is proved. The aims are to use this theorem in experiments interpretation, probability theory, statistics, economics and management. The ultimate aims are to explain the well-known problems of utility and decision...

The principle of uncertain future: the probability of a future event contains a degree of (hidden) uncertainty. As a result, this uncertainty (in a sense, similar to vibrations, fluctuations) pushes the probability value back from the bounds to the middle of its range (from ~100% and ~0% to the...

Arrangements (agreements, contracts, projects, etc.) are widespread economic events and are the fundamental concept of the economic theory. Infringements (breaches, modifications, changes, etc.) of arrangements are common and have a significant importance for the economic theory. For many years...

The definition of arrangement infringement has been given. Several characteristics of hurricanes as large-scale events and objectives for the first stages of insurance data analysis have been sketched out. Scale hypotheses, insurance and investment problems have been formulated.