We analyze expected returns and volatility in 135 different markets. We argue that country credit risk is a proxy for the ex-ante risk exposure of, particularly, segmented developing countries. We fit a time-series cross-sectional regression using data on the 47 countries which have equity...

Given the dramatic globalization over the past twenty years, does it make sense to segregate global equities into “developed” and “emerging” market buckets? We argue that the answer is still yes. While correlations between developed and emerging markets have increased, the process of...

We introduce a new, market-based and forward looking measure of political risk derived from the yield spread between a country's U.S. dollar debt and an equivalent U.S. Treasury bond. We explain the variation in these sovereign spreads with four factors: global economic conditions,...

Measuring the impact of political risk on investment projects is one of the most vexing issues in international business. One popular approach is to assume that the sovereign yield spread captures political risk and to augment the project discount rate by this spread. We show that this approach...

We provide a comprehensive analysis of the impact of economic and financial globalization on asset return comovements over the past 35 years. Our globalization indicators draw a distinction between de jure openness that results from changes in the regulatory environment and de facto or realized...

This paper examines the importance of political risk, the financial risk, and economic risk in portfolio and direct investment decisions. In addition, the components (from the International Country Risk Guide) of each of these risk measures are examined. The components of political risk include:...

We reflect on China's economic performance from the perspective of the experiences of a broad panel of countries. We formulate an econometric framework building on standard growth regressions that allows us to measure the impact of various factors on economic growth and growth variability. As...

We propose an exogenous measure of a country's growth opportunities by interacting the country's local industry mix with global price to earnings (PE) ratios. We find that these exogenous growth opportunities predict future changes in real GDP and investment in a large panel of countries. This...

Given the cross-sectional and temporal variation in their liquidity, emerging equity markets provide an ideal setting to examine the impact of liquidity on expected returns. Our main liquidity measure is a transformation of the proportion of zero daily firm returns, averaged over the month. We...