Final working paper version. "" Published version: The Review of Financial Studies, Volume 31, Issue 7, July 2018, pp. 2499–2552. Past fund performance does a poor job of predicting future outcomes. The reason is noise. Using a random effects framework, we reduce the noise by pooling...

The existing replication policies at top finance journals are far weaker than the policies at top economics journals. This paper explores both the costs and benefits of having a stronger replication policy in the context of my failed 2010 initiative to develop a unified policy across all top...

Theoretical models imply fund size and performance should be negatively linked. However, empiricists have failed to uncover consistent support for this negative relation. Using a new econometric framework which includes fund-specific sensitivities to decreasing returns to scale, we find a both...

The World's best equity analysts are based in Asia – these analysts are better at forecasting stock prices than their peers in the US, Europe and the UK. In comparison with the other regions, the performance of buy recommendations made by Asia analysts is superior and consistent over time. The...

Using a sample that post-dates important regulatory changes in Europe, we show that a buy recommendation from an analyst on a “consensus sell” stock is, on average, sufficient to cause the stock to start to rise in value. Similarly, a sell recommendation on a “consensus buy” stock can...

We examine whether broker recommendations add value in Europe. In contrast to extant research, we focus on a non-U.S. sample that post-dates the important regulatory changes of 2003/4. Our analysis suggests that European brokers' recommendations outperform a standard benchmark during the...

We provide practical insights for investors seeking exposure to the growing cryptocurrency space. Today, crypto is much more than just bitcoin, which historically dominated the space but accounted for just a 21% share of total crypto trading volume in 2021. We discuss a wide variety of tokens,...

We analyze the results of the most recent survey of U.S. Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) which looks ahead to the first quarter of 2006 and beyond. We present expectations of the equity risk premium measured over a 10-year horizon relative to a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond. This multi-year survey...

We test the mean-variance efficiency of a given portfolio with a Bayesian framework. Our test is more direct than Shanken's (1987), because we impose a prior on all the parameters of the multivariate regression model. The approach is also easily adapted to other problems. We use Monte Carlo...

This paper proposes tests of asset pricing models that allow for time variation in conditional covariances. The evidence indicates that the conditional covariances do change through time. Estimates of the expected excess return on the market divided by the variance of the market (reward-to-risk...