Machine learning offers a set of powerful tools that holds considerable promise for investment management. As with most quantitative applications in finance, the danger of misapplying these techniques can lead to disappointment. One crucial limitation involves data availability. Many of machine...

We apply state-of-the-art Bayesian machine learning to test whether we can extract valuable information from analysts' recommendations of stock performance. We use a probabilistic model for independent Bayesian classifier combination that has been successfully applied in both the physical and...

The existing replication policies at top finance journals are far weaker than the policies at top economics journals. This paper explores both the costs and benefits of having a stronger replication policy in the context of my failed 2010 initiative to develop a unified policy across all top...

We now know that research findings favorable to the sponsor of the research should be discounted on the grounds of conflict of interest (e.g., tobacco companies or pharma companies). Incentives distort research findings. Is the same true in the field of finance? I argue that economic incentives...

Incentives distort research findings. We now know that research findings favorable to the sponsor of the research should be discounted on the grounds of conflict of interest (e.g., tobacco companies or pharma companies). Is the same true in the field of finance? I argue that economic incentives...

Common risk metrics reported in academia include volatility, skewness, and factor exposures. The maximum drawdown statistic is rarely calculated, perhaps because it is path dependent and estimated with greater uncertainty. In practice, however, asset managers and fiduciaries routinely use the...

Recent studies show that volatility-managed equity portfolios realize higher Sharpe ratios than portfolios with a constant notional exposure. We show that this result only holds for “risk assets”, such as equity and credit, and link this to the so-called leverage effect for those assets. In...

We analyze the history of the equity risk premium from surveys of U.S. Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) conducted every quarter from June 2000 to June 2010. The risk premium is the expected 10-year S&P 500 return relative to a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield. While the risk premium sharply...

We analyze the history of the equity risk premium from surveys of U.S. Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) conducted every quarter from June 2000 to December 2012. The risk premium is the expected 10-year S&P 500 return relative to a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield. While the risk premium sharply...

We analyze the history of the equity risk premium from surveys of U.S. Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) conducted every quarter from June 2000 to March 2009. The risk premium is the expected 10-year S&P 500 return relative to a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield. The last two surveys were conducted...