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Uncertainty and economic activity : a global perspective

Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Rebucci, … - 2014

The 2007-2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent anemic recovery have rekindled academic interest in quantifying the impact of uncertainty on macroeconomic dynamics. This paper studies the interrelation between financial markets volatility and economic activity assuming that both...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011286232

Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy : a counterfactual analysis

Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2015

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of country-specific oil-supply shocks. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop a model for the global oil market and integrate this within a compact quarterly model of the global economy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010528313

China's emergence in the world economy and business cycles in Latin America

Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Rebucci, … - 2012

world have altered the transmission mechanism of international business cycles to Latin America. Evidence based on a Global … world shows that the long-term impact of a China GDP shock on the typical Latin American economy has increased by three … associated with a deceleration in China's economic growth in the future for both Latin America and the rest of the world economy …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009627525

China’s emergence in the world economy and business cycles in Latin America

Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Rebucci, … - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009409894

Uncertainty and economic activity : a global perspective

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Rebucci, … - 2014

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010356264

Uncertainty and economic activity : a global perspective

Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Rebucci, … - 2014

The 2007-2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent anemic recovery have rekindled academic interest in quantifying the impact of uncertainty on macroeconomic dynamics based on the premise that uncertainty causes economic activity to slow down and contract. In this paper, we study the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010338658

Oil prices and the global economy : is it different this time around?

Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2016

The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011502542

Macroeconomic dynamics and credit risk : a global perspective

Schuermann, Til; Treutler, Björn-Jakob; Weiner, Scott M.; … - 2003

We develop a framework for modeling conditional loss distributions through the introduction of risk factor dynamics. Asset value changes of a credit portfolio are linked to a dynamic global macroeconometric model, allowing macro effects to be isolated from idiosyncratic shocks. Default...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011508097

Oil prices and the global economy : is it different this time around?

Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2016

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011538905

Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs

Pesaran, M. Hashem (contributor); … - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003662971