The major focus of this paper is to determine whether the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts has improved over time. We examine 1-year-ahead forecasts of real GDP and inflation for 1967 to 2001 made by three major German forecasting groups and the OECD. We examine the accuracy of the...

Nachdem sich der Wirtschaftspolitische Ausschuss im Jahre 1988 schon einmal mit Problemen der Deregulierung befasst hatte (H. St. Seidenfus, Hrsg., Deregulierung - eine Herausforderung an die Wirtschafts- und Sozialpolitik in der Marktwirtschaft, Schriften des Vereins für Socialpolitik, N. F.,...

Econometric models are a widely used and powerful tool in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. Admittedly, their acceptance by the academic community had some hard times during the seventies and eighties. The general decline in the reputation of macroeconomics, the Lucas and the Sims...