This study examines aggregated short- and long-term inflation expectations in the unbalanced panel of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. The focus of the study is on heterogeneity of expectations and changing panel composition. First, we compare two sub-groups of survey respondents...

This paper studies the formation of inflation expectations in the euro area. We first analyse the forecast accuracy of ECB inflation projections relative to private sector forecasts. Then, using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF), we estimate a general model integrating two...

In this analysis, we investigate ECB communication by analyzing more than 3,800 speeches from 1999 until 2022. The study measures the attention which ECB Council members pay to various implicit and explicit monetary policy objectives. While price stability, according to the Maastricht Treaty, is...

We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is most pronounced at intermediate forecasting...

The papers of this compilation, prepared for the December 2013 session of the Monetary Dialogue, comment on various economic aspects regarding the balance sheets of EU banks supervised by the SSM, how can a sufficient re-capitalisation of the European Banking system be ensured most effectively,...

The notes in this compilation assess and comment on various aspects of the collateral policy and framework of the Eurosystem. In particular, the notes consider the economic implications associated with the current ECB collateral policy for asset allocation and relative asset price developments...

The ECB has played and will continue to play an important role in granting financial assistance to the so called programme countries. Together with the Commission and the IMF, the ECB is not only part of the 'troika' reviewing the progress made by the countries supported, but also, the...

The ECB has played and will continue to play an important role in granting financial assistance to the so called programme countries. Together with the Commission and the IMF, the ECB is not only part of the 'troika' reviewing the progress made by the countries supported, but also, the...

Euro-area inflation has been below 1 percent since October 2013, and medium-term inflation expectations are well below 2 percent. Forecasts of the return to target inflation have proved wrong. The European Central Bank should act forcefully, but should undermine neither the major relative price...