Showing 1 - 10 of 103
of reduction, summarizes the approach of general-to-specific modeling, and discusses the econometrics of model selection …This paper discusses the econometric methodology of general-to-specific modeling, in which the modeler simplifies an …, noting that general-to-specific modeling is the practical embodiment of reduction. This paper then summarizes fifty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014062671
for reasonable empirical modeling approximations. Finally, all three need forecasts of likely future outcomes to plan and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012804940
To capture location shifts in the context of model selection, we propose selecting significant step indicators from a saturating set added to the union of all of the candidate variables. The null retention frequency and approximate non-centrality of a selection test are derived using a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011254953
Many economic models (such as the new-Keynesian Phillips curve, NKPC) include expected future values, often estimated after replacing the expected value by the actual future outcome, using Instrumental Variables or Generalized Method of Moments. Although crises, breaks and regime shifts are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010555881
To achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions requires a dramatic energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables, as well as eliminating other sources of GHG emissions from agriculture, construction and waste. A comprehensive strategy should utilise five key sensitive intervention points...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014076650
We revisit the concept of unpredictability to explore its implications for forecasting strategies in a non-stationary world subject to structural breaks, where model and mechanism differ. Six aspects of the role of unpredictability are distinguished, compounding the four additional mistakes most...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063638
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003942766
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003942770
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003942773
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009623576