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Historically, the theory of forecasting that underpinned actual practice in economics has been based on two key … economic forecasting and additional methods of forecast evaluation that make less stringent assumptions. These theories and … methods acknowledge that the economy is dynamic and prone to sudden shifts. They also recognize that forecasting models …
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This paper discusses the econometric methodology of general-to-specific modeling, in which the modeler simplifies an initially general model that adequately characterizes the empirical evidence within his or her theoretical framework. Central aspects of this approach include the theory of...
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