This paper discusses the econometric methodology of general-to-specific modeling, in which the modeler simplifies an initially general model that adequately characterizes the empirical evidence within his or her theoretical framework. Central aspects of this approach include the theory of...

To capture location shifts in the context of model selection, we propose selecting significant step indicators from a saturating set added to the union of all of the candidate variables. The null retention frequency and approximate non-centrality of a selection test are derived using a...

Many economic models (such as the new-Keynesian Phillips curve, NKPC) include expected future values, often estimated after replacing the expected value by the actual future outcome, using Instrumental Variables or Generalized Method of Moments. Although crises, breaks and regime shifts are...

We revisit the concept of unpredictability to explore its implications for forecasting strategies in a non-stationary world subject to structural breaks, where model and mechanism differ. Six aspects of the role of unpredictability are distinguished, compounding the four additional mistakes most...

By its emissions of greenhouse gases, economic activity is the source of climate change which affects pandemics that in turn can impact badly on economies. Across the three highly interacting disciplines in our title, time-series observations are measured at vastly different data frequencies:...

To achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions requires a dramatic energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables, as well as eliminating other sources of GHG emissions from agriculture, construction and waste. A comprehensive strategy should utilise five key sensitive intervention points...