The weather forecast says that there is a "30% chance of rain," and we think we understand what it means. This quantitative statement is assumed to be unambiguous and to convey more information than does a qualitative statement like "It might rain tomorrow." Because the forecast is expressed as...

Behavioral economists have done a great service in connecting psychology and economics. Up to now, however, most have focused on cognitive illusions and anomalies, in order to prove the descriptive failure of neoclassical economic models. The key problems in the cognitive illusions literature...

After feedback, peopleãs recollections of judgments they made earlier differ systematically from their actual original judgments: Their recollection judgments are typically closer to the truth than the original judgments have been. It has been proposed that this phenomenon¨the so-called...