Der Bereich Dienstleistungen macht mehr als 70% der deutschen Bruttowertschöpfung aus, jedoch ist die Konjunkturanalyse und -prognose in diesem Wirtschaftsbereich noch sehr unterentwickelt. Ein Blick in die Literatur zeigt, dass die Forschung hier noch am Anfang steht und sich bisher diesem...

The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...

In this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a large data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden- Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a...

Different studies provide surprisingly a large variety of controversial conclusions about the forecasting power of an indicator, even when it is supposed to forecast the same time series. In this study we aim to provide a thorough overview of linear forecasting techniques and draw conclusions...