Economists are often concerned with estimates of three unobservable variables: the NAIRU, the output gap, and the structural budget balance. Although the main purpose of many existing methods is to remove effects stemming from the same business cycle, the three variables are estimated in...

Denna studie visar att utfallet i avtalsrörelsen 2007 har stor betydelse för framtida produktion och sysselsättning. Beräkningar i Konjunkturinstitutets makroekonomiska modell KIMOD visar att parterna kan minska jämviktsarbetslösheten med en procentenhet genom återhållsamma avtal...

In the past 25 years, many OECD countries have implemented fiscal contractions to strengthen their public finances. The macroeconomic outcomes of these efforts have <p> varied. With the aid of an econometric model, this paper seeks to identify the factors <p> that make contractions successful from a...</p></p>

KIMOD 1.0 is an annual large-scale macroeconomic model2 of the Swedish economy and is the result of a project that started in 2002 at the National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) in Sweden. In 2003, the model was used for the first time in policy analysis (see NIER, 2003) and from 2004...

We analyse model choices of various international institutions and find that the majority of the studied central banks have chosen so-called DSGE-models. Ministry of finances have chosen to continue using so-called Semi-Structural Models (SSM) while international organisations such as the IMF...

This paper describes and evaluates measures of trend (or potential) output in order to improve the measuring and understanding of the current state of the Swedish economy. The target group of the paper is primarily policy makers and analysts in Sweden and international organisations who study...