The real exchange rate - real interest rate (RERI) relationship is central to most open economy macroeconomic models. However, empirical support for the relationship, especially when cointegrationbased methods are used, is rather weak. In this paper we reinvestigate the RERI relationship using...

This paper examines the interaction of G7 real exchange rates with real output and interest rate differentials. Using cointegration methods, we generally find a link between the real exchange rate and the real interest differential. This finding contrasts with the majority of the extant research...

The real exchange rate - real interest rate (RERI) relationship is central to most open economy macroeconomic models. However, empirical support for the relationship, especially when cointegration-based methods are used, is rather weak. In this paper we reinvestigate the RERI relationship using...

The paper offers an empirical taxonomy of the factors driving China's current account. A simple present-value model with non-tradeable goods explains more than 70 percent of current account variability over the period 1982-2007, including the persistent surpluses since 2001. Expected increases...

We model capital flows among Chinese provinces using a theory-based variance decomposition that allows us to gauge the importance of various channels of external adjustments at the regional level: variation in intertemporal prices—domestic and international interest rates and the real exchange...

The paper offers an empirical taxonomy of the factors driving China's current account. A simple present-value model with non-tradeable goods explains more than 70 percent of current account variability over the period 1982–2007, including the persistent surpluses since 2001. It also correctly...

Regional differences in banking integration determined how Japan s Great Recession after 1990 spread across the country. We explain these differences with the emergence of silk reeling as the main export industry after Japan s opening to trade in the 19th century. The silk-exporting prefectures...

Regional differences in banking integration determined how Japan's Great Recession after 1990 spread across the country. We explain these differences with the emergence of silk reeling as the main export industry after Japan's opening to trade in the 19th century. The silk-exporting prefectures...

We define decoupling as an increase in the cross-country heterogeneity in long-term growth expectations. We identify growth expectations from a cointegrating relation between a country's output level and its stock market valuation. Fluctuations in this output-price or yp-ratio reflect changes in...

How do financial development and financial integration interact? We focus on Japan’s Great Recession after 1990 to study this question. Regional differences in banking integration affected how the recession spread across the country: financing frictions for credit-dependent firms were more...