It is well known that a tightening or easing of the United States' monetary policy affects financial markets in emerging economies. This paper argues that uncertainty about future monetary policy is a separate transmission channel. We focus on the taper tantrum episode in 2013, a period with an...

After appointing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, President Trump steadily put pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates. We show that, on average, a statement from Trump led to lower long-term interest rates, consistent with expectations of lower expected future short rates. However, the impact...

Monetary policy increasingly relies on steering market expectations about future policy. This paper identifies a monetary policy news shock based on a VAR model. A monetary news shock is equivalent to new information about the Fed's future monetary policy becoming available today. One example of...

This paper conducts a comparative analysis of the performances of the forward guidance strategies adopted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Norges Bank and the Riksbank, with the aim to gauge whether forward guidance via publication of an own interest rate path enhances a central bank's...

The present paper studies the consequences of conflicting narratives for the transmission of monetary policy shocks. We focus on conflict between the presidents of the ECB and the Bundesbank, the main protagonists of monetary policy in the euro area, who often disagreed on policy over the past...

The decision-making process in the ECB's Governing Council remains opaque as the ECB, in contrast to many other central banks, does not publish the votes for or against a policy proposal. In this paper, we construct an index of dissent based on the ECB presidents' answers to journalists'...

This paper studies the impact of dissent in the ECB's Governing Council on uncertainty surrounding households' inflation expectations. We conduct a randomized controlled trial using the Bundesbank Online Panel Households. Participants are provided with alternative information treatments...

This paper conducts a comparative analysis of the performances of the forward guidance strategies adopted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Norges Bank and the Riksbank, with the aim to gauge whether forward guidance via publication of an own interest rate path enhances a central bank’s...

This paper studies the non-linear response of the term structure of interest rates to monetary policy shocks. We show that uncertainty about monetary policy changes the way the term structure responds to monetary policy. A policy tightening leads to a significantly smaller increase in long-term...