We estimate a model of damage to corporate earnings from COVID-19. A pandemic decreases earnings due to costly mitigation and lower growth rates. The arrival of a vaccine, modeled as a Poisson process, reverts earnings to normal. We fit our model to timely measures of expected damage given by...

We derive a parsimonious model of damage to corporate earnings from COVID-19. Using measures of expected damage from industry-level earnings forecast revisions, we estimate this model with nonlinear least squares and identifying restrictions related to forecast rationality. Forecasts in mid-May...

Many practitioners point out that the speculative profits of institutional traders arc eroded by the difficulty in gauging the price impact of their trades. In this paper. we develop a model of strategic trading where speculators face such a dilemma because of incomplete information about...